Belgium v Italy in Brussels tomorrow night is the game most likely to decide UEFA Nations League Group A1. Italy, France and Belgium are separated by one point going into the final round, and only two quarter-final places are on offer.
The two games start together at 20:45 CET (19:45 UK). Italy are the visitors at the King Baudouin Stadium and Türkiye make the trip to the Stade de Bordeaux, so a goal at one ground will change the picture at the other.
Italy go in top after their 3-1 win over France on Thursday, but without one of the men who scored that night.
One Point Between the Top Three
The Group A1 table before the last round:
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −10 | 0 |
Goal difference is not what keeps Italy above France. Under UEFA’s rules, the results between level teams come first, and Italy have four points from their two meetings with France: Thursday’s win and the 1-1 in Saint-Denis back in October. Türkiye, still without a point, are already fixed in fourth.
Italy: Avoid Defeat and the Job Is Done
Roberto Mancini’s side need only to leave Brussels unbeaten to reach the last eight. Even a defeat would not end their campaign if Türkiye beat France. Victory would also make Italy group winners, and a draw would keep them in first place as long as France fail to win.
Mancini will have to manage without Davide Frattesi. The FIGC says the Lazio midfielder, who was on target on Thursday, has a muscle problem that rules him out, and he has left the Italy camp to return to his club.
The coach had already set the tone. “Now we have to go to Brussels and win to stay top,” he said after the France game, as quoted by the FIGC.
France: In Control of Their Own Route
Les Bleus also go through with anything but a defeat against Türkiye. Should they slip up in Bordeaux, they would still qualify provided Belgium fail to beat Italy.
Top spot is harder to reach. France can only claim it with a win, and even then they need Italy to drop points in Brussels.
Belgium: Nothing Less Than Three Points
For the hosts there is no margin at all. A Belgian win means qualification, and any other result sends them out.
A home victory could even take Belgium to the top of the group. That depends on France: if Les Bleus beat Türkiye, they would finish first and Belgium second.
Everything Runs Through Brussels
In the end, Belgium v Italy holds the key to the whole group. If Italy avoid defeat, they and France are both through, whatever happens in Bordeaux. A Belgian win would put the spotlight on France, and Italy would then be relying on Türkiye.
FAQ
Who are the referees?
UEFA’s match pages list Espen Eskås of Norway for the game in Brussels and Chris Kavanagh of England for the one in Bordeaux.
Is third place the end of the road?
Not necessarily. The four League A teams that finish third are put in a single ranking; the top two stay in League A, while the other two go into play-offs with League B runners-up.
How are teams level on points split?
UEFA looks at the games between those teams first: points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Overall goal difference comes in only if the head-to-head criteria cannot separate them.
